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http://news.motorbiker.org/blogs.nsf/dx/using-motorcycles-eases-congestion---scientific-study.htm
Most of us know this, either by experience or instinct. If you ride a motorcycle during rush hour you know that you get to your destination faster than cars. But now we have scientific proof.
Transport & Mobility Leuven (TM) organization in Belgium was commissioned to study traffic flows in Belgium, and find out what would happen with these traffic flows if motorcycles replaced cars.
TM looked at one stretch of road in Belgium, specifically the Leuven to Brussels E40 motorway, and analyzed it. Placing capturing devices on several stretches of the road, they were able to determine where, what and when things happened on the road. The sensors mapped a traffic census.
I'll not bore you with the methods used (you can read the link at the bottom of the article for the whole, detailed, story), but needless to say, the method used several complex formulas to determine traffic flow and congestion.
A single, average day was taken. That day was May 12th, 2011. From months of captured data, that date represented the best average match to a typical "morning rush hour" on that motorway.
The study includes many graphs detailing vehicle speeds per 5 minutes during rush hours, graphs showing you where the slow downs occurred and when the road clears up.
From the sensor statistics:
82.5% of vehicles were cars,
9.1% trucks & buses,
7.5% vans and
0.9% were motorcycles.
The data correlates with the national statistics.
On the motorway stretch analyzed, at 06:30 AM, this is what it looks like:
Leuven-Brussels motorway at 06:30 AM - Normal situation
At peak, 07:40 AM, it has turned into this:
Leuven-Brussels motorway at 07:40 AM - Normal situation
And at 09:10 AM, it has become normal again:
Leuven-Brussels motorway at 09:10 AM - Normal situation
Lost Vehicle Hours (LVH)
The time it takes to travel the distance Leuven to Brussels, at 07:40 AM takes 14 minutes longer than at 06:30 AM. Using a complex formula (see the document), taken over the rush hour, a total of 1925 hours were lost on a given day!
The journey time graph shows the following:
Leuven-Brussels motorway minutes commute vs time of day - Normal situation
More Motorcycles - The Scenario
Studies shows that motorcycles take up less space, even though they transport less people. Cars, in Belgium, have an average of 1.1 person per car, while motorcycles, on average 1 per motorcycle. But motorcycles are smaller, therefore take up less space, and can ride in-between lanes, especially when traffic is at a standstill (remember than in Belgium, lane splitting is legal). Once a motorcycle in in-between lanes, there's more space for cars.
The modal shift in vehicle utilization was based on a 10% shift of cars to motorcycles, in other words, this scenario assumes that 10% of the cars are replaced by motorcycles. The number of vans, trucks and buses remains unchanged.
With traffic diagrams shown above (06:30 and 09:10 AM) remaining the same, the 07:40 AM traffic is different:
Leuven-Brussels motorway at 07:40 AM - with 10% motorcycles
Journey times went from 14 extra minutes at 07:40 AM to an extra 6 minutes. The time it takes to make the journey at specific time intervals now shows this:
Leuven-Brussels motorway minutes commute vs time of day - with 10% motorcycles
Queues have been halved, and the time that it disperses is far quicker.
Here's the time it takes to reach the destination for both scenarios, the blue line shows the "normal" one, the red line shows if 10% of cars is replaced by motorcycles.
Leuven-Brussels motorway minutes commute vs time of day - old vs new
The total Lost Vehicle Hours has gone from 1925 hours to 706 Hours! That is a saving of 63%!
No Traffic Jams? More Motorcycles!
Using the formula, if the aim is to eliminate traffic jams altogether, 25% of cars need to be replaced by motorcycles. That would stop all traffic jams.
Knock-on Effect
It is stated that in reality, the moment a road is easier for traffic, more people will use that stretch of road. This is called the knock-on effect, and again, using a complex formula, the 706 LVH turns into a real 1158 Hours lost, still a lot less than the 1925 hours with cars. A reduction of 40% of Lost Vehicle Hours.
Country Wide Savings
Taking the calculations above into account, according to country wide statistics, a total of 37,000 hours are lost every day in Belgium. Using the 10% replacement by motorcycles of existing cars, this figure drops to 15,000 hours.
Using a time value cost of €23.76 per vehicle (cost of the vehicle tax, fuel and personal time. You'll need to see how they got to that number in the document), this represents a total saving of €350,000 PER DAY!
There are many other knock-on effects discussed (like less traffic on secondary roads), too many to discuss here, but they do not bring much into the equation.
Emissions (Pollution)
A lot has been written lately about emissions and the difference between cars and motorcycles. One TV program has recently "proved" that motorcycles pollute more than cars. This scientific report shows a different result, in fact, it shows quite the contrary.
Taking into account the Euro3 emissions for exhausts, and looking at CO2, NOx, NO2, VOC and several other pollution types, they looked at the maximum pollution which peaked at a speed 90 kph (i.e., at lower speeds, there is less pollution, while 90 kph represents the highest pollution) for all vehicle types.
The only pollution that was higher on motorcycles, compared to cars was VOC (Volatile Organic Compound). All other emissions were found to be lower on modern motorcycles. The assumption was made for the 10% of new motorcycles would constitute motorcycles in the less-than-250cc, Euro 3 exhaust class (ed note: In Europe, if you have a car license for 2 years, you are allowed to ride a 125cc motorcycle without a full motorcycle license. This is probably why they looked at pollution levels of motorcycles less than 250cc).
The total emission for motorcycles is 21% lower than cars (take that MythBusters ). Taking that into account, if the 10% motorcycle-replacing-cars scenario, this represents a saving of 6% in pollution.
Conclusion
This is a scientific approach to finding out what the impact of more motorcycles would do to traffic jams, with financial and pollution implications. The excellent document has analyzed, to a very high degree, all possible variations. The conclusion is something we already and always knew. It's better to be on a motorcycle!
It goes without saying, that if there were more motorcycles, we'd all be better off. Less time spent in traffic jams, less money wasted, less pollution, and let's face it, much more fun.
Obviously, this report doesn't take other things into account, like the time you gain with a motorcycle once you've reached your destination (try parking a car in today's traffic logged cities), maintenance, cost of ownership, etc.
All in all, a good report that should be shown to every government and city council.
Click here to read the Commuting by Motorcycle Analysis (PDF Acrobat document in English, with some Dutch in the graphs)
http://www.acem.eu/publiq/PTW_Belgium_Study_FEBIAC_ENG.pdf
Via: ACEM
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